Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 159.07 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for buying the U.S. dollar. However, a sustained rise in the pair did not materialize.

Next, we await the publication of the minutes from the previous Federal Reserve meeting and a speech by FOMC member Michael S. Barr. These events are expected to provide clarity on policy decisions and views on the economic environment.

The policymakers' opinions in the minutes may shed light on how the Fed assesses existing risks and what actions may be taken in the near term. A firm stance from the Federal Reserve leadership, likely reflected in the minutes, together with the complexity of the interest rate decision-making process, will likely create new conditions for further U.S. dollar strength and Japanese yen weakness.

Under current conditions, a decline in USD/JPY can be expected only in the case of currency intervention by the central bank.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached around 159.11 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 159.43 (thicker green line on the chart). At 159.43, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). Growth in the pair today is possible only with strong U.S. data.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 158.95 while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A move toward 159.11 and 159.43 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 158.95 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers is 158.56, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure will return with weak U.S. data.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 159.11 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 158.95 and 158.56 can be expected.

What Is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – expected take-profit level or area to secure profits, as further gains above this level are unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – expected take-profit level or area to secure profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.