Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1597 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of this price led to the execution of Scenario #2 to buy the euro, resulting in a 20-pip rise.

Today, the first half of the day promises to be rich in important economic events that may significantly impact the euro. In particular, the publication of Eurozone consumer price index data, including the core consumer price index, is expected. This indicator is a key measure of inflation and is closely monitored by traders. Currently, inflation remains one of the main challenges for the European economy, and any deviations from forecasts could trigger significant volatility. Economists are quite cautious, and their forecasts suggest that the CPI data may fall within expectations. If the actual figures match the consensus forecast, we are unlikely to see any radical market movements. This means the markets will likely maintain their current dynamics without major shocks.

However, in addition to the data, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech will also contribute to the unfolding events. Her comments regarding the current economic situation, inflation prospects, and possible further steps in monetary policy could be the factor that determines market direction in the near term. However, given that the ECB meeting was held recently and rates were raised, we are unlikely to hear anything new from Lagarde today.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro can be done upon reaching around 1.1621 (green line on the chart) with a target for growth to 1.1663. I plan to exit the market at 1.1663 and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting euro growth is only feasible after strong Eurozone data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its upward movement from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1601 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.1621 and 1.1663.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once the price reaches 1.1601 (the red line on the chart). The target will be level 1.1560, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will only return in the case of very weak reports. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1621 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. We can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.1601 and 1.1560.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.