02.02.202606:44:31UTC+00Rupiah Weakness Persists on Inflation, Domestic Pressures

On Monday, the Indonesian rupiah edged closer to IDR 16,800 per US dollar, marking its third consecutive decline as the dollar index maintained its strength. The US dollar continued to garner support following President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for the position of the next Federal Reserve Chairman, heightening expectations for a more hawkish monetary policy stance in the United States. Domestically, the rupiah faced persistent pressure due to ongoing expectations of further interest rate cuts, reflecting Bank Indonesia's prioritization of economic growth after implementing a total of 150 basis points in rate reductions since September 2024. Additionally, market sentiment took a hit from continued sell-offs in the equity market sparked by concerns over transparency raised by MSCI, which were exacerbated by the abrupt resignation of key financial officials. On the economic data front, headline inflation surged to a nearly three-year peak of 3.55% in January, while core inflation reached a nine-month high of 2.45%. Both figures remain within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 1.5%–3.5%, reducing the immediate pressure to tighten monetary policy. Meanwhile, December's trade surplus exceeded expectations as exports outpaced imports, thereby partially alleviating downward pressure on the rupiah amidst strong global demand.